StageReaches itWhat fails hereThe fix
Discovery100%What fails hereTeam doesn't know the system exists.The fixInternal launch, dev-portal link, Slack channel, Cmd-K search.
Trial~60%What fails hereTeam tries one component, hits friction, gives up.The fixHello-world install in <2 min. Type-checked TSX samples. shadcn-style registry.
Adoption~30%What fails hereTeam ships 1-2 components, then forks the rest.The fixCoverage of top 20 surfaces, lint rules on hex literals, design-review heuristics.
Contribution~10%What fails hereTeam has a gap, asks for help, queue is months long.The fixFederated RFC process, 2-week SLA on first response, accept-or-redirect within 30 days.
Maintenance~5%What fails hereTeam uses old version, doesn't upgrade, drifts.The fixSemver discipline, deprecation timelines, codemods, version-pinning lint.
Heuristic
The drop to watch is Trial → Adoption. Discovery losses are cheap to recover — announce again, fix the link. Teams lost between trial and adoption hit friction and rarely try twice. Halve the install time, halve the import boilerplate, halve the prop ceremony, and this is the stage that re-converges.